Tropical Countries Would be 20% Wealthier Today if not for Climate Change
Some (many) migrants are climate migrants
The global economy lost between $5 trillion and $29 trillion from 1992 to 2013, due to extreme heat caused by human-driven global warming, according to a study in the journal Science Advances.
Low-income tropical countries were the most affected. Some 1.5 billion people in 20 tropical countries would be 20% wealthier today if not for climate change, according to a June 2022 report. Their share of global emissions is just 5%.
Need-to-Know: 1.5 billion people would be 20% wealthier if not for climate change
Major carbon-emitting countries such as the U.S., Germany and U.K. are responsible “for billions of dollars of losses in the tropics”, the Science Advances study concluded.
Lead author Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich said:
Given the unequal burden and the share of historical emissions … the global north needs to support the global south in terms of coping with these adverse effects.
Need-to-Know: Some (many?) migrants are climate migrants
This is obviously unfair and a growing reason why people are migrating from tropical countries to northern ones. When you see headlines shouting “Migrant Crisis!” or “Border Crisis”, consider that some (many?) migrants are climate migrants because northern countries CO2 emissions have created conditions forcing these folks to leave their homes.
Also keep in the mind many of those in power who are vehemently anti-migrant also oppose actions to reduce carbon emissions.
Need-to-Know: Those opposing or slowing climate action are making the migrant crisis worse
The US, UK, and Europe have put most of the CO2 from human sources currently in the atmosphere. These historical or past carbon emissions are important because a molecule of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted in 1850 is still adding heat to the atmosphere today. The annual “flow” of CO2 emissions accumulates in the atmosphere and it is the total “stock” of CO2 emissions that has raised the global average temperature 1.2 degrees C so far.
Welcome to Need to Know: Science & Insight, my personal newsletter that looks at what we Need-to-Know at this time of pandemic, climate emergency and unraveling of nature’s life supports
Need-to-Know: The US has emitted the most CO2 in history. China may never catch up
The U.S. is responsible for 25% of the total historical emissions at 420 billion tonnes (420 Gt) of CO2. Europe has the second largest stock of emissions at 290 Gt, China is third at 238 Gt and India around 50 Gt.
While China’s annual emissions of 11.5 Gt in 2021 were far more than U.S. emissions of 5.0 Gt, it will likely take two decades before China’s cumulative emissions match those of the U.S., if ever. (China’s emissions in 2022 declined slightly.)
Need-to-Know: The popular “blame China” meme is a classic case of hypocrisy.
At last fall’s UN climate conference (COP 27) Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley clearly spelled out the increasing resentment and impatience of countries hit hard by climate change through no fault of their own.
We were the ones whose blood, sweat and tears financed the industrial revolution. Are we now to face double jeopardy by having to pay the cost as a result of those greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution? That is fundamentally unfair.
By the end of COP27 there was unanimous agreement to set up a loss and damage fund open to all developing countries. The funding will come from the US, Canada, Japan, U.K., European countries and other developed nations.
The damages from the +2.5 trillion tons we have dumped into the atmosphere in past 170 years have been, and will continue be, enormously costly. (A trillion is one thousand billion.) And we’re making it worse by adding around 36 billion tons every year.
Some studies suggest the loss and damage funding needed could reach $580 billion annually by 2030 and escalate quickly without major emission reductions.
Loss and damage funding would be in addition to funding needed help poor nations adapt to climate change which is estimated at between $160 billion to $340 billion a year by 2030.
The costs of switching to 100% clean-energy system will be far cheaper — and far saner— than continuing to add more extremely costly CO2.
Until next time, be well.
Stephen