Time to Go Big on Our Fossil-Fuel-Free Future
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I find myself constantly having to tell people: “We already agreed to get rid of fossil fuels entirely”.
That’s what the 2015 Paris agreement was about. And every country in the world signed on to it.
And another thing, that’s also what net zero carbon really means: No more burning fossil fuels.
Need-to-Know 1: The Paris agreement means we agreed to end fossil fuel use
Put another way: We’re going to live in a fossil free world. A world powered 100% by renewables. To paraphrase a Canadian hockey legend: We are going where the puck (the future) is going.
Need-to-Know 2: We’re going to live in a fossil-fuel-free world
Suddenly, or so it will seem, almost all vehicles on the roads will be electric, the air will be fresher and the streets quieter as you silently pull up to curb on your electric-bike where the parking meter is also a charging station.
That’s where we’re going in less time than you think.
It might not look like that right now. There are plenty of naysayers — some are well paid to deny our inevitable future. However more than 80% of Canadians and almost as many Americans already know we are going to live in world powered by renewables along with green hydrogen to power heavy industry, ships and planes.
Need-to-Know 3: Green hydrogen is made using electrolysis of water using renewable energy. Here’s a one-minute video explaining this from the Oxford University Economic Recovery Project.
We are going to be amazed at how much better life will be, and how much healthier as well.
This is where we’re going and we could be mostly there by 2030 .
Some of the world’s leading energy experts have calculated that Renewable Energy Could Power the World by 2030. They are backed by more than 40 outside experts including climate scientists who agree 100 per cent renewable energy is possible and doable by 2030.
Need-to-Know 4: ‘Impossible’ world-altering transitions can happen quickly
I covered their analysis in what is one of the most read Need-to-Know issues: Possible and Doable: 100 Per Cent Renewable Energy for the World. One of the big Need-to-Knows in that issue was that major transitions happen far faster than most people including experts, think is possible.
Need-to-Know 5: Cars replaced horses in less than 15 years
In 1910 the biggest challenges cities in the US and Canada faced was what to do with all the horse manure piling up on their streets. Driving one of Henry Ford’s new Model T’s was a daunting change from a horse. Few could afford to buy one as the price was equivalent to $140,000 today. Aside from cost there were other barriers such as the lack of paved roads, gas stations, refineries, car manufacturing capacity, repair shops and so on.
However by 1921, the Model T’s price had dropped to the equivalent of $35,000, while governments and the oil industry had spent massively on roads and other infrastructure. Sales of Model T’s shot up to a million a year. By 1925 they were nearing two million.
Need-to-Know 6: Economists once said sales of cell phones would never top one million a year.
In the 1980s, when cell phones were bulky, expensive, and had a short battery life. Experts predicted that by the year 2000 the industry might sell 900,000 units a year. Actual sales that year were 109 million in 2000.
And by 2014 another unexpected technology transition had happened: Smart phones. Sales in 2015 were 1.4 billion and have averaged 1.5 billion a year since.
Adoption of new technologies may seem slow or look like it’s never going to happen, said Reda Cherif, an economist at the International Monetary Fund.
“It looks like its never going to happen until it passes a threshold and then it just takes off,” Cherif told me in an interview in 2017.
Cherif and colleagues document the impact on oil consumption and oil prices with a similar rapid transitions to electric vehicles in their study Riding the Energy Transition : Oil Beyond 2040. Spoiler alert: Oil is on its way to being the new coal — dirty and non-essential when most vehicles are electric.
[UPDATE: 100% electric car and truck sales by 2035.
New report out today says this saves households $1000 a year … [and] reduce air pollution, preventing 150,000 premature deaths and avoiding $1.3 trillion in health and environmental costs by 2050.]
Need-to-Know 7: Oil consumption is going no where but down as electric vehicles do what the Model T did to travel by horse. That’s why oil company investments are doing so badly. In 2020, ExxonMobil reported its first annual loss ever, more than $20 billion, and BP’s loss came in at $18 billion.
Global business consultant Wood Mackenzie just released a new report making the obvious point: as sales of electric vehicles tacks off and climate action ramps up, oil consumption plummets. No oil company is prepared for this and many will go bankrupt the report concluded.
Need-to-Know 8: Political leaders are more afraid of change than the public
While we are going to live in a fossil-fuel-free world, we need to do everything possible to make this happen sooner than later. Unfortunately virtually all of our political leaders are afraid to act with the speed that’s needed to meet the climate emergency. Two reasons:
1. Elected leaders and officials hear much more from a loud and influential minority that have short term interests in fossil fuel industries.
To cite one recent example from Canada: In the last year fossil fuel industries and associations met with federal government officials a total of 1,224 times, an average of 4.5 times per working day. Meanwhile Canada’s carbon emissions have continued to increase since it signed the Paris agreement.
Fossil fuel industries know they contribute very little to most countries economies and employ relatively few people so they invest in aggressive lobbying and marketing. They’re like that annoying little dog that never stops yapping; attempting to intimidate or pester you into giving it treats. (Governments! Stop giving that bad dog $billion treats!! (subsidies)).
2. Elected leaders and officials don’t hear nearly enough from people who want to remembered by their families, friends and community for helping to accelerate the creation of the fossil-fuel future that will secure a viable and prosperous way of life.
When leaders and officials know their voters support bold steps they are more likely to act. And sure, bold steps will bring complaints and protests since most people hate change. But almost always after a few months, what was an outrage, becomes the norm.
The best examples of this are the once loud protests against the ban on smoking on planes and in restaurants. Some other examples I’ve written about:
In 2008 British Columbia launched the first revenue-neutral, carbon pricing scheme in North America. There was a public uproar, letters to the editor, protests and so on. By 2009 few people cared and years later a poll found a majority liked the tax savings they received from it. While there were issues it did reduce consumption of gasoline and overall emissions.
Need-to-Know 9: Carbon pricing became popular a year or two later
In 1971, a young architect and newly-minted mayor of a poor Brazilian city called Curitiba wanted to curb smog-belching traffic in the old part of town by creating Brazil's first pedestrian mall. Few were in favor and particularly the shopkeepers: How would people shop if they couldn't drive their cars?
The mayor believed that once people experienced a pedestrian mall they'd love it. One weekend he pushed the public works department to rip up the pavement and put in cobblestones and flowerbeds.
By Monday afternoon the shopkeepers wanted the mall extended. Today more than 50 blocks of the city are closed to traffic.
To sum up: We have the solutions to deal with the climate emergency, we’re not putting them in place fast enough. Only you and I can change this by individually and collectively pushing our elected leaders to be bold and go big on climate action. Surely that’s what we want to be remembered for.
Yesterday I was inspired to see 82 US health and medical organizations including the American Medical Association urging President Biden to "go big" on America’s climate action commitments for the sake of the health of all Americans.
Please, let’s have more of that encouragement for our timid leaders.
Until next time, stay safe and strong.
Stephen