Good News: Carbon Emissions are About to Peak
We’re on the very edge of a transformative shift away from fossil fuels
If recent growth rates of electric vehicles, solar, and wind are sustained we will see peak coal in 2023, peak gas in 2024, and peak oil in 2025, according to a new analysis by Climate Analytics, an independent science and policy institute.
We’re now approaching the tipping point, where renewables overtake demand growth and start displacing coal, oil, and gas. This would mark the beginning of the end for the fossil economy.
Neil Grant, climate and energy analyst and report coauthor
Need-to-Know: Greenhouse gas emissions to peak in 2024
Based on this, there’s a 65% chance global greenhouse gas emissions will peak in 2024. (The estimated emissions increase this year is about 1%.)
Emissions could even could begin a life-saving decline in 2024—as long as current clean technology trends continue. We need continued rapid deployment of batteries, solar, and wind to force fossil fuels out of the global energy system, the report says.
Need-to-Know: There is no more room for new fossil infrastructure.
“New fossil fuel production plans will need to be axed, with fossil fuel production falling around 40% over the decade on the road to a full, fast, and fair fossil phase out,” the report says.
Need-to-Know: Fossil-fuel friendly governments could delay the emissions peak
Governments can still screw this up leading to a deadly delay. “Despite clear market trends, governments could fast-track or delay the energy transition and peaking date depending on their policy choices,” the report warns
The fossil fuel industry has been, and will continue to do, whatever it takes to drag out the inevitable decline of fossil fuel use no matter the consequences for all of us.
Governments need to work with the market to support renewables and stop pulling in the wrong direction with fossil funding and subsidies.
Climate Analytics’ Head of Policy Claire Fyson.
It would be a huge win for all of us if countries at the UN Climate COP 28 meeting agree to phase out fossil fuels by the meeting’s end on Dec 12.
However, given the fact that the COP 28 President is the head of the United Arab Emirate’s (UAE) national oil company, the odds are that the industries’ preferred phase-down over multiple decades will win out. (Although I’ve been to several previous COPs, I’m not going to Dubai.)
Reaching an emission peak in 2024 would be a big, big deal. It’s the essential first step in the difficult journey from dirty to clean energy.
Need-to-Know: Again, there is no more room for new fossil infrastructure
Some relevant points from previous Ntk issues:
Need-to-Know: Every tenth of a degree means 100 million more people will suffer
Need-to-Know: Peaking is not enough
With a peak in carbon emissions we need to do three things by 2030 to give us a 50-50 chance of keeping warming around 1.5 Celsius:
40% decline in fossil-fuel production.
Triple the amount of renewables
Doubling energy efficiency.
Difficult yes, but not impossible. There are potential synergies and positive tipping points that could make this happen. More next time.
Until then, be safe.
Stephen
P.S. For you climate geeks, an emissions scenario graph from the report.