Welcome to the web version of Need to Know: Science & Insight, a new form of personal journalism that looks at what we Need-to-Know at this time of pandemic, existential crisis of climate change and unravelling of nature’s life supports. Learn more.
Hello again. I’d largely written this week’s issue on how climate change is screwing up our seasons — winters will be only one month in future. But then I saw a news item about Missouri closing some its Covid testing centers. Closing them "due to reduced community transmission” despite 84,000 new cases in one week. That’s a huge number in state with 6.2 million people. All of Canada had 21,000 new cases in the last week with more than 6x the population.
There’s a general feeling that the year-long pandemic is finally winding down as folks get vaccinated. Unfortunately the pandemic is likely to get worse over the next month or two with the highly-infectious Covid variants becoming the dominant strains.
I’d love for things to get back to something like normal. The plain truth is that we can’t relax our guard — to put down our Covid shields — just yet. But it sure is tempting as the weather warms up.…
I was shocked by her bold invitation.
“Come on in,” she said.
“Would you like a table by the window or a seat at the bar?”
I reeled backwards in revulsion, nearly raised my fingers to make a cross and ward off her evil intentions.
Instead I said: “No thank you,” in a weak, quavering voice.
I admit I was sorely tempted. This was one of my favourite microbreweries. I’d come for a quick in and out to take home a few cans of my favourite beverage.
It’s been year since I’ve been inside a bar, restaurant or fast food joint. Mostly because they’ve been off-limits due to Covid lockdown restrictions here in Ontario. Recently those restrictions had eased allowing a limited number of people to dine or imbibe indoors.
While the microbrewery was completely empty of customers, the very idea of drinking a pint indoors was repellant.
What’s happening to me I wondered while walking home and realized there was two reasons for my reaction: Variant and Slippery Slope.
The Slippery Slope
While that microbrewery was extremely safe, I couldn’t let myself experience, never mind imagine enjoying a drink or meal indoors with family or friends. It would be putting my Covid shield down for the first time in a year. I’d love to get rid of it. It’s heavy and I’m sick of carting it around all the damn time.
However I know putting my Covid shield down once would make it much easier to rationalize the risks of putting it down again in another place and time. And if I denied myself the pleasure of sitting inside with friends I’d be depressed and pissed off. That would make me far more likely to say “the hell with it” and drop my shield at the next opportunity.
And yet if I did go inside I’d be paranoid and unable to relax because of what I know about the science regarding the Covid variants.
That’s the crazy yin-yang polarity we’re all dealing with these days.
So for me it’s better to pretend all that most public indoor activities are still off limits because the risks remain high despite what governments say.
Need-to-Know 1: The risks may be worse than a year ago.
Covid variants in your neighbourhood
The new UK and South African Covid variants are more up to 90% more infectious and potentially more dangerous than the original. They are probably the dominant strains now.
Need-to-Know 2: It is way easier to get infected now than a year ago.
Sure we all know how to reduce our risks through distancing, masks, and hand washing but we’re all fed up with taking precautions and want our normal lives back.
Some people have given up and don’t care if they get infected in hopes of A) not dying and B) immunity. Some considerations:
A) Not dying
Covid treatments are much better than a year ago so the death rate has gone way down. That’s good but getting infected is still bad. No one wants to spend time on respirator. It’s a horrible experience and can do serious damage.
And then there’s Long Covid, where people suffer symptoms and are unable to recover months after infection. One study found more than 75% of those infected suffering six months later. Other studies suggest far few people are affected. But it is likely millions of people are dealing with it.
Need-to-Know 3: Long Covid is not rare
Half of children with mild symptoms continued to have at least one symptom 120 days later a new study has found. Covid is brand new disease and we’re still learning about it. It’s effects on our health could be worse than we thought or better. Caution, hyper caution even, is warranted.
Need-to-Know 4: Long Covid happens to kids
Need-to-Know 5: No one knows what all the long-term health effects are.
B) Immunity
Need-to-Know 6: Just because you’ve had Covid doesn’t mean you can’t be infected again. It’s less likely but not impossible.
Need-to-Know 7: The nearly 120 million people who have been infected over the last year are vulnerable to re-infection with the new variants. New studies show antibodies from a previous infection are less effective at blocking the variant viruses.
Need-to-Know 8: The current vaccines aren’t as effective against the variants. Researchers are modifying the vaccines but these won’t be available until the end of the year because they have to be tested for safety.
Need-to-Know 9: We’ll need to get jabs periodically to keep up with the evolving Covid variants.
That’s the science at this point. Covid is an entirely new disease and it will take another year or two to really understand what it’s doing to us and how to learn to live with it.
Need-to-Know 10: Covid is not going away.
I hate to say it but we really do need to hang on to our Covid shields, make them even stronger to protect ourselves, our families, friends and community. Many governments are not listening to medical experts, and shifted their priority to protecting the economy rather than public health.
Need-to-Know 11: Governments may not be acting in the best interests of public health.
Five COVID variant protection tips
1. Two masks better than one
2. Safe socializing and bubble/pod life
3. Keeping your distance - 6 feet may not be enough
4. Mask up outside
5. Let local case rates determine your activities.
(These are detailed in a previous NtK issue.)
Until next time, please stay strong and stay safe.
Stephen
Delta and Omicron killed far more children than flu ever does.
New data show that Covid-19 is far worse for children than seasonal influenza, as long suspected.
https://insidemedicine.bulletin.com/delta-and-omicron-killed-far-more-children-than-flu-ever-does/
For starters covid isn't seasonal and is far more serious than the flu. We still don't know the long term impacts of infection - some folks are dealing with symptoms 2+ years later.