Climate Change: The Force Multiplier of Extreme Weather
Gobsmacking: 1.5C in the next 5 years?
Welcome to Need to Know: Science & Insight, my personal newsletter that looks at what we Need-to-Know at this time of pandemic, climate emergency and unravelling of nature’s life supports.In times of geopolitical unrest climate change loses its priority billing, at least until the next heat wave, major storm or wildfire.
I wrote that, and most of this post on May 20, just before an extreme, and very rare event called a derecho cut a 1000-kilometre path across Southern Ontario and Quebec, killing at least a 11 people and causing billions of dollars in damages.
Our house in Ottawa was ok, but like tens of thousands of other homes in the city, we were without power for six days. Luckily, nearby relatives kept their power so we to prepare meals and shower. Many thousands of homes in rural areas may not get power for weeks.
Yes, this is in Canada.
Need-to-Know 1: Extreme weather events can strike anywhere, anytime. There is no safe place.
It is likely the worst storm this part of Canada has ever experienced. In recent months, other parts of the world have also been hit by some of their worst-ever extreme events.
An unprecedented 14-week-long series of heat waves across India and Pakistan has forced more than 1 billion people to endure temperatures of up 45 degrees Celsius, or 113 degrees Fahrenheit.
March was the hottest month in 60 years in Pakistan. Across most of India it was the hottest March ever, while April was the warmest in 100 years. And May will likely set a new record too with the city of New Delhi enduring 49 degrees C (120 degrees F) last week.
Researchers agree this kind of deadly heat wave that’s reportedly killed hundreds, but more likely killed thousands, is happening far more often because of climate change. What was a once-in-300-years catastrophic heat wave is now happening every 3.1 years, according to the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office.
Another analysis by the World Weather Attribution group said climate change made the India and Pakistan spring heat waves 30X more likely.
“Rising global temperatures are fuelling devastating extreme weather throughout the world, with spiralling impacts on economies and societies.”
— World Meteorological Organization
The vast majority of Indians and Pakistanis have no access to air conditioners and nearly half the population works outdoors — mostly in farming and construction. Outdoor work can only be done between dawn and 11 am, while schools and other businesses are closed or have limited hours.
India loses more than 100 billion hours of labor per year on average because of extreme heat, according to research published a couple of years ago.
Need-to-Know 2: Extreme weather events occur more often today because of climate change
Most of Europe has also been under an exceptionally early heat wave with mid-summer temperatures of 40 degrees C (104 degrees F) in Portugal and Spain in May. In France, temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees C above the norm and French officials have issued drought alerts.
“What’s behind all of this? Climate change, obviously anthropogenic, generated by the emission of greenhouse gases linked to human activity.”
— Spain’s State Meteorological Agency
An equally early heat wave across the U.S. brought record-topping temperatures of 112 degrees F to Texas and temperatures that are 15-25 degrees F above average in the Central and Northeastern sections of the United States.
The western half of the US remains under severe drought conditions and the Southwest is at high risk of wildfire. One current wildfire in New Mexico has been burning for more than six weeks and consumed over 300,000 acres (121,000 hectares) — so far.
South Asia and Southwest U.S. is reaching a critical threshold, according to Luke Parsons of the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University. “…where people can no longer efficiently cool themselves and it’s almost deadly just to be outside, much less work.”
Need-to-Know 3: Extreme weather events will increase in number and strength with every ton of carbon we add to the atmosphere.
All of this is the result of a 1.1 degrees C rise in global average temperatures. That deceptively small number doesn’t express the gobsmacking amount of heat energy needed to increase our planet’s temperature. The Guardian took a whack at trying to convey this. I paraphrase for clarity:
1.1 C rise in global temps is equivalent to 1.5 Hiroshima-size atomic bombs per second for the last 150 years on average.
With current high levels of carbon emissions, the heating has accelerated. Today it is now more like adding the heat energy from three and six atomic bombs per second.
After that sobering fact, I hesitate to bring this up.
In the next 5 years, there’s a 50-50 chance the global average temperature will abruptly jump to 1.5 degrees C from 1.1 degrees C today, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Fortunately, this 1.5 degree-C-year will be temporary. However, the enormous amount of additional heat energy required to reach 1.5 degrees C will have major, and largely unpredictable, impacts on global weather systems. Weather chaos ahead.
Need-to-Know 4: A 1.5-degree C year is coming far sooner than expected.
The 1.5-degree-C temperature jump will most likely happen during an El Niño event. We’re currently in a La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—which is expected to last through summer. That will make for an active Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño, the warm phase, occurs every two to four years. It is too soon to know if ENSO will swing back towards an El Niño late this year or next.
Scary stuff. This brings us back to my opening statement. In times of geopolitical unrest—inflation, rising food/fuel prices, conflicts, etc—action on climate change loses its priority billing. And yet climate change is the ultimate force multiplier. (A military term meaning something that can really amp up the damage to the enemy.)
In other words, climate change makes most bad things worse including food and fuel prices. And it makes really, really bad things way more likely to happen. It can make a months-long-heat-wave 100 times more likely.
Need-to-Know 5: Climate change is the force multiplier of extreme weather
While we are preoccupied with our daily dramas and conflicts climate change keeps ticking away, CO2 levels have now ticked upwards past 421 parts per million, a 50% increase on the stable, pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million.
Surely, we can tackle more than one problem at time. Acting on climate will prevent some, more even many, of those problems from getting worse. So what can you and I do? I’ll cite a previous NtK post::
We can become “role models of low-carbon lifestyles, by investing into low-carbon business, and by lobbying for stringent climate policies.”
Need-to-Know 6: We can be role models of decent, low-carbon living.
For more on climate action see my previous posts:
Possible and Doable: 100 Per Cent Renewable Energy for the World
Until next time, be well.
Stephen